Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC-B.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 102.25. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 17.2%, net 8.4%, free cash flow 12.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 110.47Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range SEK 85.57 to SEK 151.90
8%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

0.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 297.68BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 15.75BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 37.87BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 2.43Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 85.11Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 102.25
11.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

SEK 0 SEK 10.69B SEK 21.38B SEK 32.07B SEK 42.76B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.2% SEK 33.49B 1.3%
Base 1.7% SEK 37.87B 2.6%
Bull 3.2% SEK 42.76B 3.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– SEK 230.79BSEK 39.71BSEK 19.30BSEK 29.36B 5.898.962.9833.70102.25
Year 11.7% SEK 234.80BSEK 38.58BSEK 18.20BSEK 29.87B 5.559.112.8136.4596.77
Year 21.9% SEK 239.36BSEK 37.46BSEK 17.08BSEK 30.45B 5.219.292.6439.0291.19
Year 32.3% SEK 244.81BSEK 36.41BSEK 15.96BSEK 31.14B 4.879.502.4641.4285.57
Year 42.4% SEK 250.72BSEK 35.34BSEK 14.81BSEK 31.90B 4.529.732.2943.6579.69
Year 52.6% SEK 257.13BSEK 34.24BSEK 13.60BSEK 32.71B 4.159.982.1045.7073.52
Year 62.7% SEK 264.06BSEK 35.16BSEK 13.97BSEK 33.59B 4.2610.252.1647.8175.50
Year 72.8% SEK 271.54BSEK 36.16BSEK 14.37BSEK 34.54B 4.3810.542.2249.9777.64
Year 83.0% SEK 279.61BSEK 37.23BSEK 14.79BSEK 35.57B 4.5110.852.2852.2079.94
Year 93.1% SEK 288.31BSEK 38.39BSEK 15.25BSEK 36.68B 4.6511.192.3654.5082.43
Year 103.3% SEK 297.68BSEK 39.64BSEK 15.75BSEK 37.87B 4.8011.552.4356.8785.11

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.