Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

easyJet plc (EZJ.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:03.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 6.84. Growth begins at 16.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 15.4%, net 4.9%, free cash flow 8.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (9.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 26.80Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 20.02 to GBP 38.88
292%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 2x the price; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

15.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 23.14BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.13BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.84BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.27Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 27.09Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 6.84
35.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-GBP 1.28B -GBP 331.76M GBP 619.48M GBP 1.57B GBP 2.52B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.9% GBP 1.33B 5.1%
Base 9.9% GBP 1.84B 8.6%
Bull 15.9% GBP 2.52B 12.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 10.11BGBP 1.56BGBP 494.00MGBP 804.00M 0.651.050.124.586.84
Year 19.9% GBP 11.11BGBP 1.71BGBP 543.00MGBP 883.76M 0.711.160.135.168.62
Year 212.4% GBP 12.49BGBP 1.93BGBP 610.60MGBP 993.76M 0.801.300.155.8110.92
Year 313.4% GBP 14.17BGBP 2.18BGBP 692.67MGBP 1.13B 0.911.480.176.5513.79
Year 411.9% GBP 15.86BGBP 2.44BGBP 775.14MGBP 1.26B 1.011.650.197.3817.00
Year 510.4% GBP 17.50BGBP 2.70BGBP 855.54MGBP 1.39B 1.121.820.218.2920.49
Year 68.8% GBP 19.05BGBP 2.94BGBP 931.15MGBP 1.52B 1.221.980.229.2922.30
Year 77.3% GBP 20.44BGBP 3.15BGBP 999.16MGBP 1.63B 1.312.130.2410.3523.93
Year 85.8% GBP 21.62BGBP 3.33BGBP 1.06BGBP 1.72B 1.382.250.2511.4825.31
Year 94.2% GBP 22.53BGBP 3.47BGBP 1.10BGBP 1.79B 1.442.350.2712.6626.38
Year 102.7% GBP 23.14BGBP 3.57BGBP 1.13BGBP 1.84B 1.482.410.2713.8727.09

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.