Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Diamondback Energy (FANG)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 05 Nov 2026 20:49.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 179.58. Growth begins at 3.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 42.0%, net 11.1%, free cash flow 58.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-5.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 214.56Model fair value (EV/EBITDA (12x)); range USD 170.95 to USD 258.18
19%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

4.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 17.93BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.99BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 11.41BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 4.77Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 224.66Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 179.58
22.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 4.02B USD 8.03B USD 12.05B USD 16.06B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -11.4% USD 7.98B -0.9%
Base -5.4% USD 11.41B 2.7%
Bull 0.6% USD 16.06B 6.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 15.03BUSD 6.30BUSD 1.66BUSD 8.76B 5.7630.304.00127.90179.58
Year 1-5.4% USD 14.21BUSD 5.71BUSD 1.57BUSD 8.44B 5.4429.183.78129.56171.50
Year 2-0.8% USD 14.09BUSD 5.42BUSD 1.56BUSD 8.52B 5.4029.463.75131.20171.72
Year 33.6% USD 14.60BUSD 5.36BUSD 1.62BUSD 8.98B 5.5931.073.89132.91179.61
Year 43.4% USD 15.11BUSD 5.28BUSD 1.67BUSD 9.45B 5.7932.704.02134.68187.56
Year 53.3% USD 15.60BUSD 5.18BUSD 1.73BUSD 9.93B 5.9834.364.15136.50195.54
Year 63.1% USD 16.09BUSD 5.35BUSD 1.78BUSD 10.24B 6.1635.434.28138.38201.67
Year 73.0% USD 16.57BUSD 5.50BUSD 1.83BUSD 10.55B 6.3536.494.41140.32207.66
Year 82.8% USD 17.04BUSD 5.66BUSD 1.89BUSD 10.84B 6.5337.514.53142.31213.51
Year 92.7% USD 17.49BUSD 5.81BUSD 1.94BUSD 11.13B 6.7038.514.66144.35219.18
Year 102.5% USD 17.93BUSD 5.95BUSD 1.99BUSD 11.41B 6.8739.474.77146.45224.66

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.