Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

FedEx (FDX)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Aug 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 31 Aug 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 316.80. Growth begins at 3.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.2%, net 4.1%, free cash flow 5.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 247.90Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 160.22 to USD 403.93
-22%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 131.50BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 5.38BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 6.31BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 7.62Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 365.72Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 316.80
8.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 2.20B USD 4.41B USD 6.61B USD 8.81B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 31 Aug 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.9% USD 4.45B -2.3%
Base 4.1% USD 6.31B 1.2%
Bull 10.1% USD 8.81B 4.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Aug 2026– USD 95.33BUSD 9.73BUSD 3.90BUSD 5.60B 16.3223.425.53144.64316.80
Year 14.1% USD 99.27BUSD 10.13BUSD 4.06BUSD 5.61B 16.9923.495.76155.87319.12
Year 23.9% USD 103.10BUSD 10.52BUSD 4.22BUSD 5.61B 17.6523.475.98167.54320.26
Year 33.5% USD 106.68BUSD 10.89BUSD 4.36BUSD 5.58B 18.2623.336.19179.62319.83
Year 43.4% USD 110.28BUSD 11.25BUSD 4.51BUSD 5.53B 18.8823.136.39192.10318.64
Year 53.3% USD 113.87BUSD 11.62BUSD 4.66BUSD 5.46B 19.4922.856.60204.99316.67
Year 63.1% USD 117.45BUSD 11.98BUSD 4.80BUSD 5.63B 20.1023.576.81218.28326.63
Year 73.0% USD 121.01BUSD 12.35BUSD 4.95BUSD 5.80B 20.7124.297.02231.98336.54
Year 82.9% USD 124.55BUSD 12.71BUSD 5.10BUSD 5.97B 21.3225.007.22246.08346.37
Year 92.8% USD 128.05BUSD 13.07BUSD 5.24BUSD 6.14B 21.9225.707.42260.57356.11
Year 102.7% USD 131.50BUSD 13.42BUSD 5.38BUSD 6.31B 22.5126.407.62275.46365.72

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.