Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Comfort Systems USA (FIX)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 1,025.02. Growth begins at 22.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 18.1%, net 13.0%, free cash flow 19.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (26.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 1,080.82Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 810.51 to USD 1,562.69
5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

10.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 43.18BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 4.34BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 6.08BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 7.99Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 2,763.62Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 1,025.02
16.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 2.05B USD 4.10B USD 6.14B USD 8.19B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 20.7% USD 4.47B 6.2%
Base 26.7% USD 6.08B 9.6%
Bull 32.7% USD 8.19B 12.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 12.54BUSD 2.27BUSD 1.63BUSD 2.44B 46.4269.453.0094.881,025.02
Year 126.7% USD 15.89BUSD 2.74BUSD 1.97BUSD 2.92B 56.1383.113.63147.381,242.76
Year 223.6% USD 19.63BUSD 3.23BUSD 2.32BUSD 3.40B 66.0696.694.27209.161,466.47
Year 318.2% USD 23.21BUSD 3.62BUSD 2.61BUSD 3.77B 74.20107.234.80278.561,651.72
Year 416.0% USD 26.93BUSD 3.98BUSD 2.87BUSD 4.08B 81.56116.175.27354.841,820.39
Year 513.8% USD 30.65BUSD 4.28BUSD 3.08BUSD 4.32B 87.65122.825.67436.831,961.79
Year 611.6% USD 34.20BUSD 4.78BUSD 3.44BUSD 4.82B 97.81137.046.33528.312,188.97
Year 79.4% USD 37.40BUSD 5.22BUSD 3.76BUSD 5.27B 106.96149.876.92628.352,393.86
Year 87.1% USD 40.07BUSD 5.60BUSD 4.03BUSD 5.64B 114.60160.577.41735.542,564.78
Year 94.9% USD 42.04BUSD 5.87BUSD 4.23BUSD 5.92B 120.23168.477.78847.992,690.97
Year 102.7% USD 43.18BUSD 6.03BUSD 4.34BUSD 6.08B 123.48173.027.99963.492,763.62

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.