Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Fortum Oyj (FORTUM.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:04.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 23.15. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 4.3% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.2% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 25.7%, net 14.2%, free cash flow 6.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 4.3% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (11.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 22.36Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 16.87 to EUR 32.84
-3%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; value is more than 1.5x the Free-cash-flow DCF value.

6.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 8.29BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.18BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 536.05MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.31Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 33.52Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 23.15
2.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.37 EUR 0.74 EUR 1.11 EUR 1.48 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 10.2% EUR 1.16 -1.8%
Base 11.7% EUR 1.31 -0.6%
Bull 13.2% EUR 1.48 0.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 5.67BEUR 1.46BEUR 806.00MEUR 367.00M 0.900.411.408.8023.15
Year 111.7% EUR 6.34BEUR 1.63BEUR 899.90MEUR 409.76M 1.000.461.008.8025.80
Year 27.3% EUR 6.80BEUR 1.75BEUR 965.42MEUR 439.59M 1.080.491.088.8027.63
Year 32.8% EUR 6.99BEUR 1.80BEUR 992.66MEUR 451.99M 1.110.501.118.8028.36
Year 42.7% EUR 7.18BEUR 1.84BEUR 1.02BEUR 464.35M 1.140.521.148.8029.09
Year 52.6% EUR 7.37BEUR 1.89BEUR 1.05BEUR 476.63M 1.170.531.178.8029.81
Year 62.6% EUR 7.56BEUR 1.94BEUR 1.07BEUR 488.81M 1.200.541.208.8030.57
Year 72.5% EUR 7.74BEUR 1.99BEUR 1.10BEUR 500.87M 1.230.561.238.8031.32
Year 82.4% EUR 7.93BEUR 2.04BEUR 1.13BEUR 512.78M 1.260.571.268.8032.07
Year 92.3% EUR 8.11BEUR 2.08BEUR 1.15BEUR 524.51M 1.280.581.288.8032.80
Year 102.2% EUR 8.29BEUR 2.13BEUR 1.18BEUR 536.05M 1.310.601.318.8033.52

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.