Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 16:19.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 272.00. Growth begins at 7.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA n/a, net 16.1%, free cash flow 15.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 142.22Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range NOK 110.22 to NOK 198.85
-48%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 70.17BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 11.29BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 8.86BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 15.59Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 272.30Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 272.00
6.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

NOK 0.00 NOK 5.42 NOK 10.83 NOK 16.25 NOK 21.67 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.2% NOK 11.06 1.0%
Base 4.8% NOK 15.59 4.5%
Bull 10.8% NOK 21.67 8.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– NOK 45.01B–NOK 7.24BNOK 6.84B 14.4813.6810.0050.13272.00
Year 14.8% NOK 47.16B–NOK 7.59BNOK 6.92B 15.1813.8510.4854.83264.58
Year 25.8% NOK 49.90B–NOK 8.03BNOK 7.07B 16.0614.1411.0959.80258.41
Year 36.3% NOK 53.06B–NOK 8.54BNOK 7.24B 17.0714.4911.7965.09251.79
Year 45.8% NOK 56.11B–NOK 9.03BNOK 7.37B 18.0614.7512.4770.68242.03
Year 55.2% NOK 59.03B–NOK 9.50BNOK 7.45B 19.0014.9113.1276.56229.08
Year 64.6% NOK 61.77B–NOK 9.94BNOK 7.80B 19.8815.6013.7282.72239.71
Year 74.1% NOK 64.29B–NOK 10.34BNOK 8.12B 20.6916.2414.2889.12249.49
Year 83.5% NOK 66.55B–NOK 10.71BNOK 8.40B 21.4216.8114.7995.75258.27
Year 93.0% NOK 68.52B–NOK 11.03BNOK 8.65B 22.0517.3115.22102.58265.92
Year 102.4% NOK 70.17B–NOK 11.29BNOK 8.86B 22.5817.7215.59109.57272.30

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.