Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Globe Life (GL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:40.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 157.35. Growth begins at 5.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 9.5%, net 18.9%, free cash flow 21.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.2 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 184.23Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range USD 152.74 to USD 239.96
17%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

14.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 9.34BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.76BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.99BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.40Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 611.33Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 157.35
16.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 72.76 USD 145.52 USD 218.28 USD 291.04 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 4.0% USD 252.86 12.4%
Base 6.2% USD 271.01 13.2%
Bull 8.4% USD 291.04 14.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 6.28BUSD 596.82MUSD 1.19BUSD 1.33B 15.1517.060.2778.69157.35
Year 16.2% USD 6.67BUSD 633.82MUSD 1.26BUSD 1.42B 16.0918.120.2994.50193.80
Year 25.7% USD 7.05BUSD 669.73MUSD 1.33BUSD 1.50B 17.0019.140.30111.20233.75
Year 34.8% USD 7.38BUSD 701.79MUSD 1.39BUSD 1.57B 17.8220.060.32128.70277.13
Year 44.4% USD 7.71BUSD 733.00MUSD 1.46BUSD 1.64B 18.6120.950.33146.98324.02
Year 54.1% USD 8.03BUSD 763.09MUSD 1.52BUSD 1.71B 19.3821.810.35166.01374.48
Year 63.8% USD 8.33BUSD 791.82MUSD 1.57BUSD 1.77B 20.1022.630.36185.76419.02
Year 73.4% USD 8.62BUSD 818.93MUSD 1.63BUSD 1.83B 20.7923.410.37206.18465.09
Year 83.1% USD 8.88BUSD 844.17MUSD 1.68BUSD 1.89B 21.4324.130.38227.23512.58
Year 92.7% USD 9.13BUSD 867.31MUSD 1.72BUSD 1.94B 22.0224.790.39248.86561.37
Year 102.4% USD 9.34BUSD 888.12MUSD 1.76BUSD 1.99B 22.5525.390.40271.01611.33

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.