Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 18:28.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 282.57. Growth begins at 18.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 67.7%, net 50.0%, free cash flow 4.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 3.4 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (27.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 319.18Model fair value (EV/EBITDA (12x)); range USD 267.65 to USD 370.72
13%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Normalised free-cash-flow DCF value.

9.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 1.44TRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 550.80BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 60.21BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.02Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 681.74Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 282.57
1.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 18.32B USD 36.63B USD 54.95B USD 73.27B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 23.6% USD 49.48B 9.6%
Base 27.0% USD 60.21B 11.8%
Bull 30.4% USD 72.97B 14.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 471.10BUSD 318.71BUSD 235.69BUSD 19.75B 19.061.600.8754.78282.57
Year 127.0% USD 598.34BUSD 404.79BUSD 285.37BUSD 25.08B 23.072.031.0576.81344.34
Year 221.8% USD 728.99BUSD 493.18BUSD 330.64BUSD 30.56B 26.732.471.21102.33401.53
Year 314.9% USD 837.90BUSD 566.86BUSD 360.45BUSD 35.12B 29.142.841.32130.15440.54
Year 413.2% USD 948.67BUSD 641.80BUSD 385.93BUSD 39.77B 31.203.221.42159.93474.67
Year 511.5% USD 1.06TUSD 715.60BUSD 405.58BUSD 44.34B 32.793.581.49191.24502.00
Year 69.8% USD 1.16TUSD 785.59BUSD 445.25BUSD 48.67B 36.003.941.63225.60551.10
Year 78.1% USD 1.25TUSD 848.91BUSD 481.14BUSD 52.60B 38.904.251.77262.74595.51
Year 86.3% USD 1.33TUSD 902.73BUSD 511.64BUSD 55.93B 41.374.521.88302.23633.27
Year 94.6% USD 1.40TUSD 944.43BUSD 535.28BUSD 58.52B 43.284.731.97343.54662.53
Year 102.9% USD 1.44TUSD 971.82BUSD 550.80BUSD 60.21B 44.534.872.02386.05681.74

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.