Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:56.
Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 18.50. Growth begins at 4.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 31.7%, net 13.0%, free cash flow 20.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | GBP 8.82B | 2.6% |
| Base | 4.5% | GBP 9.96B | 3.8% |
| Bull | 6.0% | GBP 11.23B | 5.1% |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM through 30 Sep 2026 | – | GBP 33.54B | GBP 10.64B | GBP 4.35B | GBP 6.84B | 1.07 | 1.68 | 0.66 | 4.60 | 18.50 |
| Year 1 | 4.5% | GBP 35.05B | GBP 11.12B | GBP 4.55B | GBP 7.15B | 1.12 | 1.75 | 0.69 | 5.03 | 19.30 |
| Year 2 | 4.6% | GBP 36.65B | GBP 11.63B | GBP 4.75B | GBP 7.47B | 1.17 | 1.83 | 0.72 | 5.47 | 20.15 |
| Year 3 | 4.4% | GBP 38.27B | GBP 12.14B | GBP 4.96B | GBP 7.80B | 1.22 | 1.92 | 0.76 | 5.94 | 21.01 |
| Year 4 | 4.2% | GBP 39.88B | GBP 12.65B | GBP 5.17B | GBP 8.13B | 1.27 | 2.00 | 0.79 | 6.42 | 21.86 |
| Year 5 | 4.0% | GBP 41.47B | GBP 13.16B | GBP 5.38B | GBP 8.45B | 1.32 | 2.08 | 0.82 | 6.92 | 22.70 |
| Year 6 | 3.8% | GBP 43.04B | GBP 13.65B | GBP 5.58B | GBP 8.77B | 1.37 | 2.15 | 0.85 | 7.44 | 23.55 |
| Year 7 | 3.6% | GBP 44.56B | GBP 14.14B | GBP 5.78B | GBP 9.08B | 1.42 | 2.23 | 0.88 | 7.98 | 24.39 |
| Year 8 | 3.3% | GBP 46.05B | GBP 14.61B | GBP 5.97B | GBP 9.39B | 1.47 | 2.30 | 0.91 | 8.54 | 25.20 |
| Year 9 | 3.1% | GBP 47.49B | GBP 15.06B | GBP 6.16B | GBP 9.68B | 1.51 | 2.38 | 0.94 | 9.11 | 25.99 |
| Year 10 | 2.9% | GBP 48.86B | GBP 15.50B | GBP 6.34B | GBP 9.96B | 1.56 | 2.45 | 0.96 | 9.70 | 26.74 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.