Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 17:27.
Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 2.62. Growth begins at 3.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 65.7%, net -1.8%, free cash flow 18.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly; annual data only; value is more than 2x the price; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -16.4% | GBP 1.56B | 1.2% |
| Base | -10.4% | GBP 2.24B | 5.0% |
| Bull | -4.4% | GBP 3.17B | 8.7% |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year 2025 | – | GBP 7.63B | GBP 5.01B | -GBP 139.00M | GBP 1.38B | -0.08 | 0.82 | n/a | n/a | 2.62 |
| Year 1 | -10.4% | GBP 6.84B | GBP 4.38B | -GBP 124.58M | GBP 1.36B | -0.07 | 0.81 | n/a | n/a | 2.78 |
| Year 2 | -3.3% | GBP 6.61B | GBP 4.12B | -GBP 120.43M | GBP 1.43B | -0.07 | 0.85 | n/a | n/a | 3.14 |
| Year 3 | 3.6% | GBP 6.85B | GBP 4.15B | -GBP 124.72M | GBP 1.59B | -0.07 | 0.95 | n/a | n/a | 3.76 |
| Year 4 | 3.4% | GBP 7.08B | GBP 4.17B | -GBP 128.97M | GBP 1.77B | -0.08 | 1.06 | n/a | n/a | 4.44 |
| Year 5 | 3.3% | GBP 7.31B | GBP 4.18B | -GBP 133.17M | GBP 1.95B | -0.08 | 1.17 | n/a | n/a | 5.20 |
| Year 6 | 3.1% | GBP 7.54B | GBP 4.31B | -GBP 137.30M | GBP 2.02B | -0.08 | 1.20 | n/a | n/a | 5.36 |
| Year 7 | 3.0% | GBP 7.76B | GBP 4.44B | -GBP 141.36M | GBP 2.07B | -0.08 | 1.24 | n/a | n/a | 5.52 |
| Year 8 | 2.8% | GBP 7.98B | GBP 4.56B | -GBP 145.32M | GBP 2.13B | -0.09 | 1.27 | n/a | n/a | 5.68 |
| Year 9 | 2.7% | GBP 8.19B | GBP 4.69B | -GBP 149.17M | GBP 2.19B | -0.09 | 1.31 | n/a | n/a | 5.83 |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | GBP 8.39B | GBP 4.80B | -GBP 152.90M | GBP 2.24B | -0.09 | 1.34 | n/a | n/a | 5.97 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.