Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Hartford (The) (HIG)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 16:08.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 134.47. Growth begins at 5.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 18.2%, net 15.9%, free cash flow 24.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 183.35Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range USD 135.96 to USD 268.41
36%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

6.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 42.05BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 6.68BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 10.11BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 3.40Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 212.53Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 134.47
26.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

USD 0 USD 2.12B USD 4.23B USD 6.35B USD 8.47B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.8% USD 5.23B 1.3%
Base 4.8% USD 6.68B 3.8%
Bull 8.8% USD 8.47B 6.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 29.02BUSD 5.29BUSD 4.61BUSD 6.98B 16.3124.702.3566.78134.47
Year 14.8% USD 30.41BUSD 5.55BUSD 4.83BUSD 7.32B 17.0925.892.4681.41143.49
Year 24.9% USD 31.90BUSD 5.82BUSD 5.06BUSD 7.67B 17.9227.152.5896.76153.17
Year 34.6% USD 33.37BUSD 6.09BUSD 5.30BUSD 8.03B 18.7528.412.70112.81163.07
Year 44.3% USD 34.81BUSD 6.35BUSD 5.53BUSD 8.37B 19.5629.632.81129.56173.04
Year 54.0% USD 36.20BUSD 6.60BUSD 5.75BUSD 8.71B 20.3430.822.93146.97183.00
Year 63.7% USD 37.54BUSD 6.85BUSD 5.96BUSD 9.03B 21.0931.953.03165.03189.73
Year 73.4% USD 38.80BUSD 7.08BUSD 6.16BUSD 9.33B 21.8033.023.14183.69196.10
Year 83.0% USD 39.97BUSD 7.29BUSD 6.35BUSD 9.62B 22.4634.033.23202.92202.05
Year 92.7% USD 41.06BUSD 7.49BUSD 6.52BUSD 9.88B 23.0734.953.32222.67207.55
Year 102.4% USD 42.05BUSD 7.67BUSD 6.68BUSD 10.11B 23.6235.793.40242.89212.53

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.