Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:40.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 289.41. Growth begins at 6.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 8.2%, net 5.4%, free cash flow 2.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.7 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 92.51Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 52.31 to USD 164.09
-68%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

2.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 21.20BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.15BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 589.11MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 8.59Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 299.19Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 289.41
5.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 198.50M USD 397.00M USD 595.50M USD 794.00M FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.6% USD 445.39M 1.7%
Base 6.4% USD 589.11M 4.6%
Bull 11.1% USD 772.32M 7.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 13.53BUSD 1.11BUSD 733.00MUSD 376.00M 18.519.495.48138.69289.41
Year 16.4% USD 14.39BUSD 1.18BUSD 779.77MUSD 399.99M 19.6910.105.83152.55286.93
Year 26.2% USD 15.29BUSD 1.25BUSD 828.30MUSD 424.89M 20.9210.736.19167.27282.54
Year 35.6% USD 16.15BUSD 1.32BUSD 875.08MUSD 448.88M 22.1011.346.54182.83274.99
Year 45.2% USD 17.00BUSD 1.39BUSD 920.82MUSD 472.34M 23.2511.936.88199.20264.63
Year 54.8% USD 17.81BUSD 1.46BUSD 965.07MUSD 495.04M 24.3712.507.21216.35251.42
Year 64.4% USD 18.59BUSD 1.52BUSD 1.01BUSD 516.75M 25.4413.057.53234.26262.44
Year 74.0% USD 19.33BUSD 1.58BUSD 1.05BUSD 537.23M 26.4513.577.83252.88272.84
Year 83.5% USD 20.02BUSD 1.64BUSD 1.08BUSD 556.26M 27.3814.058.11272.16282.51
Year 93.1% USD 20.64BUSD 1.69BUSD 1.12BUSD 573.62M 28.2414.498.36292.04291.33
Year 102.7% USD 21.20BUSD 1.74BUSD 1.15BUSD 589.11M 29.0014.888.59312.45299.19

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.