Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Hannover Rueck SE (HNR1.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:40.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 291.80. Growth begins at 2.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 111.6%, net 11.0%, free cash flow 23.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 132.26Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 102.50 to EUR 184.92
-55%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

0.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 31.06BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.73BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 7.36BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 9.61Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 219.13Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 291.80
20.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 3.36 EUR 6.73 EUR 10.09 EUR 13.46 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.5% EUR 6.77 -3.1%
Base 3.5% EUR 9.61 0.3%
Bull 9.5% EUR 13.46 3.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 24.02BEUR 26.80BEUR 2.64BEUR 5.69B 21.9047.169.30107.21291.80
Year 13.5% EUR 24.85BEUR 25.17BEUR 2.62BEUR 5.88B 21.7548.799.24119.72273.95
Year 23.0% EUR 25.59BEUR 23.29BEUR 2.59BEUR 6.06B 21.4750.259.11132.07254.69
Year 32.5% EUR 26.24BEUR 21.17BEUR 2.54BEUR 6.21B 21.0451.518.93144.18234.33
Year 42.5% EUR 26.89BEUR 18.93BEUR 2.48BEUR 6.37B 20.5852.798.74156.02214.19
Year 52.5% EUR 27.55BEUR 16.56BEUR 2.42BEUR 6.52B 20.0854.108.52167.58194.35
Year 62.5% EUR 28.23BEUR 16.96BEUR 2.48BEUR 6.68B 20.5755.438.73179.41199.13
Year 72.4% EUR 28.92BEUR 17.38BEUR 2.54BEUR 6.85B 21.0756.788.95191.54203.99
Year 82.4% EUR 29.62BEUR 17.80BEUR 2.60BEUR 7.01B 21.5958.169.16203.96208.95
Year 92.4% EUR 30.34BEUR 18.23BEUR 2.67BEUR 7.18B 22.1159.569.39216.68213.99
Year 102.4% EUR 31.06BEUR 18.67BEUR 2.73BEUR 7.36B 22.6460.999.61229.71219.13

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.