Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Honeywell Technologies (HON)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:56.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 215.78. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 37.2%, net 23.0%, free cash flow 4.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.8 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 193.89Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 136.22 to USD 296.50
-10%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 39.90BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 7.62BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.66BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 8.73Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 215.55Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 215.78
2.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.36B USD 2.71B USD 4.07B USD 5.42B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.0% USD 1.18B -0.8%
Base 1.8% USD 1.66B 2.6%
Bull 7.5% USD 2.29B 6.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 30.72BUSD 11.43BUSD 7.05BUSD 1.28B 22.094.008.0870.23215.78
Year 11.8% USD 31.25BUSD 11.63BUSD 6.93BUSD 1.30B 21.734.077.9484.01208.97
Year 22.3% USD 31.99BUSD 11.90BUSD 6.85BUSD 1.33B 21.464.167.8597.63203.25
Year 32.9% USD 32.91BUSD 12.25BUSD 6.80BUSD 1.37B 21.294.287.78111.14198.48
Year 42.9% USD 33.86BUSD 12.60BUSD 6.73BUSD 1.41B 21.094.417.71124.52193.44
Year 52.8% USD 34.82BUSD 12.96BUSD 6.65BUSD 1.45B 20.854.537.62137.74188.14
Year 62.8% USD 35.80BUSD 13.32BUSD 6.84BUSD 1.49B 21.444.667.84151.34193.44
Year 72.8% USD 36.80BUSD 13.69BUSD 7.03BUSD 1.53B 22.034.798.05165.32198.83
Year 82.8% USD 37.82BUSD 14.07BUSD 7.23BUSD 1.57B 22.644.928.28179.69204.31
Year 92.7% USD 38.85BUSD 14.45BUSD 7.42BUSD 1.61B 23.265.068.50194.44209.89
Year 102.7% USD 39.90BUSD 14.84BUSD 7.62BUSD 1.66B 23.895.198.73209.60215.55

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.