Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Honeywell Aerospace (HONA)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 149.59. Growth begins at 8.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.6%, net 10.2%, free cash flow 18.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 179.32Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 133.11 to USD 261.62
20%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 29.31BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 3.00BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 5.39BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 264.48Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 149.59
11.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.52B USD 3.03B USD 4.55B USD 6.07B FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 5.8% USD 4.78B 4.1%
Base 7.3% USD 5.39B 5.4%
Bull 8.8% USD 6.07B 6.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 17.40BUSD 3.59BUSD 1.78BUSD 3.20B 5.6210.10n/an/a149.59
Year 17.3% USD 18.67BUSD 3.85BUSD 1.91BUSD 3.43B 6.0310.84n/an/a162.04
Year 27.5% USD 20.06BUSD 4.13BUSD 2.05BUSD 3.69B 6.4811.65n/an/a175.84
Year 37.0% USD 21.47BUSD 4.42BUSD 2.20BUSD 3.95B 6.9312.46n/an/a190.04
Year 46.4% USD 22.85BUSD 4.71BUSD 2.34BUSD 4.20B 7.3813.26n/an/a204.18
Year 55.8% USD 24.17BUSD 4.98BUSD 2.47BUSD 4.45B 7.8014.03n/an/a218.07
Year 65.2% USD 25.42BUSD 5.24BUSD 2.60BUSD 4.68B 8.2114.76n/an/a229.36
Year 74.6% USD 26.58BUSD 5.48BUSD 2.72BUSD 4.89B 8.5815.43n/an/a239.81
Year 83.9% USD 27.63BUSD 5.69BUSD 2.83BUSD 5.08B 8.9216.04n/an/a249.25
Year 93.3% USD 28.54BUSD 5.88BUSD 2.92BUSD 5.25B 9.2116.57n/an/a257.53
Year 102.7% USD 29.31BUSD 6.04BUSD 3.00BUSD 5.39B 9.4617.02n/an/a264.48

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.