Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

HP Inc. (HPQ)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Jul 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:29.

Starts from TTM through 31 Jul 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 29.44. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 6.4%, net 4.1%, free cash flow 6.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (0.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 43.07Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 31.43 to USD 62.43
46%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

6.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 74.89BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 3.10BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 4.91BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.50Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 41.58Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 29.44
18.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.72B USD 3.45B USD 5.17B USD 6.89B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 31 Jul 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -5.5% USD 3.45B -1.2%
Base 0.5% USD 4.91B 2.4%
Bull 6.5% USD 6.89B 5.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Jul 2026– USD 59.16BUSD 3.76BUSD 2.45BUSD 3.88B 2.644.191.18n/a29.44
Year 10.5% USD 59.44BUSD 3.78BUSD 2.46BUSD 3.90B 2.664.211.19n/a30.26
Year 21.3% USD 60.22BUSD 3.82BUSD 2.49BUSD 3.95B 2.694.261.20n/a31.35
Year 32.3% USD 61.59BUSD 3.91BUSD 2.55BUSD 4.04B 2.754.361.23n/a32.77
Year 42.4% USD 63.08BUSD 4.01BUSD 2.61BUSD 4.14B 2.824.461.26n/a34.29
Year 52.6% USD 64.69BUSD 4.11BUSD 2.68BUSD 4.24B 2.894.581.29n/a35.91
Year 62.7% USD 66.43BUSD 4.22BUSD 2.75BUSD 4.36B 2.974.701.33n/a36.88
Year 72.8% USD 68.31BUSD 4.34BUSD 2.83BUSD 4.48B 3.054.831.36n/a37.93
Year 83.0% USD 70.34BUSD 4.47BUSD 2.91BUSD 4.61B 3.144.981.40n/a39.05
Year 93.1% USD 72.53BUSD 4.61BUSD 3.00BUSD 4.76B 3.245.131.45n/a40.27
Year 103.3% USD 74.89BUSD 4.76BUSD 3.10BUSD 4.91B 3.355.301.50n/a41.58

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.