Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

HSBC Holdings plc (HSBA.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:56.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 12.98. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 8.1% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 26.0%, net 16.6%, free cash flow 18.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 8.1% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 10.67Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range GBP 9.18 to GBP 13.32
-18%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

6.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 135.72BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 22.55BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 25.41BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.67Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 19.44Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 12.98
11.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 3.64 GBP 7.28 GBP 10.92 GBP 14.57 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.5% GBP 11.91 4.6%
Base 5.5% GBP 13.09 5.6%
Bull 11.5% GBP 14.57 6.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 100.32BGBP 26.05BGBP 16.67BGBP 18.78B 0.951.070.497.5712.98
Year 15.5% GBP 105.80BGBP 27.47BGBP 17.58BGBP 19.81B 1.001.130.528.0513.44
Year 24.2% GBP 110.24BGBP 28.63BGBP 18.32BGBP 20.64B 1.041.180.548.5513.88
Year 32.9% GBP 113.40BGBP 29.45BGBP 18.85BGBP 21.23B 1.071.210.569.0714.31
Year 42.8% GBP 116.57BGBP 30.27BGBP 19.37BGBP 21.82B 1.101.240.579.6014.70
Year 52.7% GBP 119.76BGBP 31.10BGBP 19.90BGBP 22.42B 1.131.280.5910.1415.07
Year 62.7% GBP 122.95BGBP 31.93BGBP 20.43BGBP 23.02B 1.161.310.6110.7015.90
Year 72.6% GBP 126.15BGBP 32.76BGBP 20.96BGBP 23.62B 1.191.350.6211.2816.76
Year 82.5% GBP 129.35BGBP 33.59BGBP 21.50BGBP 24.22B 1.231.380.6411.8717.63
Year 92.5% GBP 132.54BGBP 34.42BGBP 22.03BGBP 24.81B 1.261.410.6512.4718.53
Year 102.4% GBP 135.72BGBP 35.24BGBP 22.55BGBP 25.41B 1.291.450.6713.0919.44

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.