Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 05:33; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 07 Nov 2026 00:04.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 24.62. Growth begins at 6.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 27.0%, net 12.5%, free cash flow 24.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (0.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 39.32Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 28.45 to USD 59.72
60%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; real estate: free cash flow after property spending is a poor guide; funds from operations fit better.

7.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 8.69BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.09BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.71BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.35Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 40.24Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 24.62
10.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 307.00M USD 367.50M USD 1.04B USD 1.72B USD 2.39B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -5.5% USD 1.21B -2.2%
Base 0.5% USD 1.71B 1.3%
Bull 6.5% USD 2.39B 4.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 6.11BUSD 1.65BUSD 765.00MUSD 1.51B 1.102.180.959.4524.62
Year 10.5% USD 6.15BUSD 1.60BUSD 768.98MUSD 1.46B 1.112.100.959.6025.49
Year 23.4% USD 6.35BUSD 1.59BUSD 794.82MUSD 1.44B 1.152.080.999.7627.11
Year 35.7% USD 6.72BUSD 1.62BUSD 840.24MUSD 1.46B 1.212.101.049.9329.46
Year 45.2% USD 7.07BUSD 1.63BUSD 884.16MUSD 1.46B 1.272.111.1010.1031.85
Year 54.7% USD 7.40BUSD 1.64BUSD 926.06MUSD 1.46B 1.332.101.1510.2934.25
Year 64.3% USD 7.72BUSD 1.71BUSD 965.43MUSD 1.52B 1.392.191.2010.4835.71
Year 73.8% USD 8.01BUSD 1.77BUSD 1.00BUSD 1.58B 1.442.271.2410.6837.05
Year 83.3% USD 8.27BUSD 1.83BUSD 1.03BUSD 1.63B 1.492.351.2810.8838.27
Year 92.8% USD 8.50BUSD 1.88BUSD 1.06BUSD 1.67B 1.532.411.3211.0939.33
Year 102.3% USD 8.69BUSD 1.93BUSD 1.09BUSD 1.71B 1.572.471.3511.3140.24

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.