Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A. (IAG.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 16:18.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 4.31. Growth begins at 14.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 22.8%, net 10.1%, free cash flow 9.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 10.65Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 7.62 to GBP 16.04
147%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 2x the price; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

11.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 54.76BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 5.51BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 5.19BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.15Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 11.86Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 4.31
23.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-GBP 4.37B -GBP 1.49B GBP 1.39B GBP 4.27B GBP 7.14B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.4% GBP 3.72B 3.7%
Base 5.6% GBP 5.19B 7.2%
Bull 11.6% GBP 7.14B 10.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 27.22BGBP 6.20BGBP 2.74BGBP 2.58B 0.540.510.081.264.31
Year 15.6% GBP 28.74BGBP 6.55BGBP 2.89BGBP 2.72B 0.570.540.081.754.89
Year 29.3% GBP 31.42BGBP 7.16BGBP 3.16BGBP 2.98B 0.630.590.092.295.71
Year 311.8% GBP 35.12BGBP 8.00BGBP 3.53BGBP 3.33B 0.700.660.102.906.79
Year 410.5% GBP 38.79BGBP 8.84BGBP 3.90BGBP 3.67B 0.780.730.113.567.95
Year 59.2% GBP 42.35BGBP 9.65BGBP 4.26BGBP 4.01B 0.850.800.124.299.17
Year 67.9% GBP 45.69BGBP 10.41BGBP 4.60BGBP 4.33B 0.910.860.135.089.89
Year 76.6% GBP 48.70BGBP 11.10BGBP 4.90BGBP 4.61B 0.970.920.145.9110.55
Year 85.3% GBP 51.27BGBP 11.68BGBP 5.16BGBP 4.86B 1.030.970.146.7911.10
Year 94.0% GBP 53.32BGBP 12.15BGBP 5.37BGBP 5.05B 1.071.000.157.7111.55
Year 102.7% GBP 54.76BGBP 12.48BGBP 5.51BGBP 5.19B 1.091.030.158.6511.86

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.