Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Inchcape plc (INCH.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:15.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 6.41. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 4.9% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 3.0% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 7.4%, net 3.0%, free cash flow 3.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 4.9% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 10.22Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 7.34 to GBP 15.16
59%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 12.17BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 298.03MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 454.80MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.29Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 8.07Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 6.41
18.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 159.08M GBP 318.16M GBP 477.25M GBP 636.33M FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.3% GBP 320.45M -0.6%
Base 2.7% GBP 454.80M 3.0%
Bull 8.7% GBP 636.33M 6.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 9.10BGBP 670.00MGBP 272.00MGBP 340.00M 0.720.900.273.316.41
Year 12.7% GBP 9.34BGBP 687.96MGBP 269.19MGBP 349.11M 0.710.920.263.766.53
Year 22.8% GBP 9.61BGBP 707.49MGBP 266.44MGBP 359.03M 0.700.950.264.206.65
Year 33.0% GBP 9.90BGBP 728.72MGBP 263.73MGBP 369.80M 0.690.970.264.636.77
Year 43.0% GBP 10.19BGBP 750.58MGBP 260.62MGBP 380.89M 0.691.000.255.066.87
Year 53.0% GBP 10.50BGBP 773.10MGBP 257.09MGBP 392.32M 0.681.030.255.496.96
Year 63.0% GBP 10.82BGBP 796.29MGBP 264.80MGBP 404.09M 0.701.060.265.937.17
Year 73.0% GBP 11.14BGBP 820.18MGBP 272.74MGBP 416.21M 0.721.100.276.387.38
Year 83.0% GBP 11.47BGBP 844.78MGBP 280.92MGBP 428.70M 0.741.130.276.847.60
Year 93.0% GBP 11.82BGBP 870.13MGBP 289.35MGBP 441.56M 0.761.160.287.327.83
Year 103.0% GBP 12.17BGBP 896.23MGBP 298.03MGBP 454.80M 0.781.200.297.828.07

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.