Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Incyte (INCY)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:21.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 118.01. Growth begins at 7.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 14.5%, net 6.7%, free cash flow 11.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 4.6 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 73.29Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 59.66 to USD 97.03
-38%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

3.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 9.35BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 627.72MNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.07BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 166.23Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 118.01
4.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 353.37M USD 706.75M USD 1.06B USD 1.41B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.9% USD 812.29M 1.7%
Base 3.6% USD 1.07B 4.5%
Bull 8.2% USD 1.39B 7.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 6.01BUSD 872.80MUSD 403.41MUSD 684.87M 1.983.37n/an/a118.01
Year 13.6% USD 6.23BUSD 904.57MUSD 418.10MUSD 709.80M 2.063.49n/an/a119.99
Year 25.2% USD 6.55BUSD 951.28MUSD 439.68MUSD 746.45M 2.163.67n/an/a123.75
Year 36.2% USD 6.96BUSD 1.01BUSD 467.00MUSD 792.83M 2.303.90n/an/a128.85
Year 45.7% USD 7.36BUSD 1.07BUSD 493.81MUSD 838.34M 2.434.12n/an/a133.51
Year 55.3% USD 7.75BUSD 1.12BUSD 519.81MUSD 882.49M 2.564.34n/an/a137.66
Year 64.8% USD 8.12BUSD 1.18BUSD 544.73MUSD 924.79M 2.684.55n/an/a144.26
Year 74.3% USD 8.47BUSD 1.23BUSD 568.26MUSD 964.74M 2.804.75n/an/a150.49
Year 83.8% USD 8.79BUSD 1.28BUSD 590.12MUSD 1.00B 2.904.93n/an/a156.28
Year 93.4% USD 9.09BUSD 1.32BUSD 610.03MUSD 1.04B 3.005.10n/an/a161.55
Year 102.9% USD 9.35BUSD 1.36BUSD 627.72MUSD 1.07B 3.095.24n/an/a166.23

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.