Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (ISP.MI)

Price update date unknown; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 5.89. Growth begins at 5.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA n/a, net 32.7%, free cash flow 23.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 5.08Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 3.93 to EUR 7.10
-14%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

7.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 41.43BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 13.54BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 9.56BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.52Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 7.96Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 5.89
9.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.18 EUR 0.36 EUR 0.54 EUR 0.72 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.1% EUR 0.37 0.3%
Base 3.9% EUR 0.52 3.8%
Bull 9.9% EUR 0.72 7.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 28.53B–EUR 9.32BEUR 6.58B 0.540.380.36n/a5.89
Year 13.9% EUR 29.63B–EUR 9.68BEUR 6.84B 0.560.390.37n/a6.03
Year 24.6% EUR 31.00B–EUR 10.13BEUR 7.16B 0.580.410.39n/a6.22
Year 35.0% EUR 32.55B–EUR 10.63BEUR 7.51B 0.610.430.41n/a6.44
Year 44.6% EUR 34.05B–EUR 11.13BEUR 7.86B 0.640.450.43n/a6.64
Year 54.3% EUR 35.50B–EUR 11.60BEUR 8.19B 0.670.470.44n/a6.82
Year 63.9% EUR 36.88B–EUR 12.05BEUR 8.51B 0.690.490.46n/a7.09
Year 73.5% EUR 38.17B–EUR 12.47BEUR 8.81B 0.720.510.48n/a7.34
Year 83.1% EUR 39.37B–EUR 12.86BEUR 9.09B 0.740.520.49n/a7.57
Year 92.8% EUR 40.46B–EUR 13.22BEUR 9.34B 0.760.540.51n/a7.78
Year 102.4% EUR 41.43B–EUR 13.54BEUR 9.56B 0.780.550.52n/a7.96

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.