Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Gartner (IT)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:20.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 198.07. Growth begins at 6.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 23.1%, net 14.8%, free cash flow 20.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 308.07Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 240.38 to USD 420.81
56%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 9.92BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.47BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.99BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 347.25Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 198.07
15.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 678.13M USD 1.36B USD 2.03B USD 2.71B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.5% USD 1.45B 1.1%
Base 4.0% USD 1.99B 4.4%
Bull 9.5% USD 2.71B 7.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 6.44BUSD 1.49BUSD 954.35MUSD 1.29B 14.9220.25n/an/a198.07
Year 14.0% USD 6.70BUSD 1.55BUSD 992.71MUSD 1.35B 15.5221.06n/an/a211.75
Year 24.9% USD 7.03BUSD 1.63BUSD 1.04BUSD 1.41B 16.2922.10n/an/a228.22
Year 35.5% USD 7.42BUSD 1.72BUSD 1.10BUSD 1.49B 17.1923.33n/an/a247.19
Year 45.2% USD 7.81BUSD 1.81BUSD 1.16BUSD 1.57B 18.0924.54n/an/a266.74
Year 54.9% USD 8.19BUSD 1.90BUSD 1.21BUSD 1.65B 18.9725.74n/an/a286.76
Year 64.6% USD 8.57BUSD 1.98BUSD 1.27BUSD 1.72B 19.8426.91n/an/a299.82
Year 74.2% USD 8.93BUSD 2.07BUSD 1.32BUSD 1.79B 20.6828.05n/an/a312.51
Year 83.9% USD 9.28BUSD 2.15BUSD 1.37BUSD 1.86B 21.4829.15n/an/a324.70
Year 93.6% USD 9.61BUSD 2.22BUSD 1.42BUSD 1.93B 22.2530.19n/an/a336.32
Year 103.3% USD 9.92BUSD 2.30BUSD 1.47BUSD 1.99B 22.9731.17n/an/a347.25

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.