Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Kesko Oyj (KESKOB.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:12.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 25.48. Growth begins at 4.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.0%, net 3.4%, free cash flow 4.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 17.34Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 10.30 to EUR 30.44
-32%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 18.80BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 637.47MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 909.39MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.30Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 27.95Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 25.48
9.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 268.94M EUR 537.87M EUR 806.81M EUR 1.08B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.3% EUR 766.40M 2.0%
Base 5.8% EUR 909.39M 3.7%
Bull 8.3% EUR 1.08B 5.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 13.03BEUR 1.31BEUR 441.90MEUR 630.40M 1.111.580.907.1325.48
Year 15.8% EUR 13.79BEUR 1.38BEUR 467.71MEUR 667.22M 1.171.680.957.3525.68
Year 25.1% EUR 14.50BEUR 1.46BEUR 491.78MEUR 701.55M 1.231.761.007.5825.64
Year 34.2% EUR 15.11BEUR 1.52BEUR 512.42MEUR 731.00M 1.291.841.047.8225.30
Year 43.9% EUR 15.71BEUR 1.58BEUR 532.61MEUR 759.80M 1.341.911.088.0824.83
Year 53.7% EUR 16.29BEUR 1.64BEUR 552.22MEUR 787.78M 1.391.981.128.3424.21
Year 63.4% EUR 16.85BEUR 1.69BEUR 571.15MEUR 814.78M 1.432.051.168.6125.04
Year 73.2% EUR 17.38BEUR 1.74BEUR 589.25MEUR 840.61M 1.482.111.208.8925.84
Year 82.9% EUR 17.89BEUR 1.80BEUR 606.42MEUR 865.10M 1.522.171.239.1826.59
Year 92.7% EUR 18.36BEUR 1.84BEUR 622.53MEUR 888.08M 1.562.231.279.4727.30
Year 102.4% EUR 18.80BEUR 1.89BEUR 637.47MEUR 909.39M 1.602.281.309.7827.95

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.