Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Kingfisher plc (KGF.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:12.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 3.72. Growth begins at 2.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.1%, net 1.9%, free cash flow 8.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 3.4 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 6.79Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 4.87 to GBP 10.12
83%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

7.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 17.16BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 324.68MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.40BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.16Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 5.95Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 3.72
21.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 432.55M GBP 865.09M GBP 1.30B GBP 1.73B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.2% GBP 1.12B 0.6%
Base 2.2% GBP 1.40B 2.9%
Bull 5.6% GBP 1.73B 5.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 12.95BGBP 1.30BGBP 245.00MGBP 1.05B 0.140.590.123.473.72
Year 12.2% GBP 13.23BGBP 1.33BGBP 250.41MGBP 1.08B 0.140.610.133.483.96
Year 22.5% GBP 13.56BGBP 1.37BGBP 256.72MGBP 1.11B 0.140.620.133.504.22
Year 32.9% GBP 13.95BGBP 1.40BGBP 264.06MGBP 1.14B 0.150.640.133.524.51
Year 42.9% GBP 14.36BGBP 1.44BGBP 271.70MGBP 1.17B 0.150.660.143.534.81
Year 52.9% GBP 14.78BGBP 1.49BGBP 279.65MGBP 1.20B 0.160.680.143.555.12
Year 63.0% GBP 15.21BGBP 1.53BGBP 287.94MGBP 1.24B 0.160.700.143.575.28
Year 73.0% GBP 15.67BGBP 1.58BGBP 296.56MGBP 1.28B 0.170.720.153.595.43
Year 83.0% GBP 16.14BGBP 1.63BGBP 305.55MGBP 1.32B 0.170.740.153.615.60
Year 93.1% GBP 16.64BGBP 1.67BGBP 314.92MGBP 1.36B 0.180.760.163.625.77
Year 103.1% GBP 17.16BGBP 1.73BGBP 324.68MGBP 1.40B 0.180.790.163.645.95

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.