Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Land Securities Group Plc (LAND.L)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:05; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 07 Nov 2026 01:51.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 6.78. Growth begins at 7.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 53.0%, net 38.5%, free cash flow 7.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.8 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (9.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 5.93Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range GBP 4.52 to GBP 8.53
-13%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly; annual data only; value is more than 1.5x the EV/EBITDA (12x) value; real estate: free cash flow after property spending is a poor guide; funds from operations fit better.

9.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 1.49BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 571.95MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 111.72MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.65Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 10.95Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 6.78
2.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.22 GBP 0.44 GBP 0.67 GBP 0.89 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.5% GBP 0.47 1.8%
Base 9.3% GBP 0.65 5.2%
Bull 15.1% GBP 0.89 8.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 892.00MGBP 473.00MGBP 343.00MGBP 67.00M 0.460.090.398.756.78
Year 19.3% GBP 975.05MGBP 517.04MGBP 374.93MGBP 73.24M 0.500.100.428.837.36
Year 28.2% GBP 1.06BGBP 559.44MGBP 405.68MGBP 79.24M 0.540.110.468.917.92
Year 36.5% GBP 1.12BGBP 595.76MGBP 432.02MGBP 84.39M 0.580.110.499.008.38
Year 45.9% GBP 1.19BGBP 630.87MGBP 457.48MGBP 89.36M 0.610.120.529.108.82
Year 55.3% GBP 1.25BGBP 664.27MGBP 481.70MGBP 94.09M 0.640.130.559.209.22
Year 64.7% GBP 1.31BGBP 695.46MGBP 504.32MGBP 98.51M 0.680.130.579.309.66
Year 74.1% GBP 1.37BGBP 723.95MGBP 524.98MGBP 102.55M 0.700.140.599.4110.05
Year 83.5% GBP 1.41BGBP 749.27MGBP 543.34MGBP 106.13M 0.730.140.619.5210.40
Year 92.9% GBP 1.45BGBP 770.99MGBP 559.09MGBP 109.21M 0.750.150.639.6410.70
Year 102.3% GBP 1.49BGBP 788.72MGBP 571.95MGBP 111.72M 0.770.150.659.7610.95

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.