Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Leidos (LDOS)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:29.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 131.16. Growth begins at 4.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.4%, net 8.0%, free cash flow 11.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 192.41Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 131.09 to USD 301.54
47%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 25.36BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 2.04BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 2.79BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.47Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 208.73Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 131.16
17.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 973.67M USD 1.95B USD 2.92B USD 3.89B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.0% USD 1.97B 0.1%
Base 4.0% USD 2.79B 3.6%
Bull 10.0% USD 3.89B 7.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 17.80BUSD 2.38BUSD 1.43BUSD 1.96B 11.4315.671.7441.38131.16
Year 14.0% USD 18.51BUSD 2.47BUSD 1.49BUSD 2.04B 11.8916.301.8151.46139.63
Year 24.2% USD 19.30BUSD 2.58BUSD 1.55BUSD 2.12B 12.4017.001.8861.98148.89
Year 34.2% USD 20.12BUSD 2.69BUSD 1.62BUSD 2.21B 12.9217.721.9672.94158.67
Year 44.0% USD 20.93BUSD 2.79BUSD 1.68BUSD 2.30B 13.4518.432.0484.34168.66
Year 53.8% USD 21.73BUSD 2.90BUSD 1.74BUSD 2.39B 13.9619.132.1296.18178.82
Year 63.6% USD 22.50BUSD 3.00BUSD 1.81BUSD 2.48B 14.4619.822.20108.44185.23
Year 73.4% USD 23.26BUSD 3.11BUSD 1.87BUSD 2.56B 14.9420.492.27121.12191.46
Year 83.1% USD 23.99BUSD 3.20BUSD 1.93BUSD 2.64B 15.4121.132.34134.19197.48
Year 92.9% USD 24.69BUSD 3.30BUSD 1.98BUSD 2.72B 15.8621.752.41147.64203.24
Year 102.7% USD 25.36BUSD 3.39BUSD 2.04BUSD 2.79B 16.2922.332.47161.46208.73

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.