Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Lennox International (LII)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 348.79. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 5.7% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 21.1%, net 13.8%, free cash flow 15.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 5.7% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 286.06Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 198.17 to USD 442.45
-18%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 7.49BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.03BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 954.40MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 7.30Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 414.92Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 348.79
7.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 333.19M USD 666.38M USD 999.56M USD 1.33B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.4% USD 673.93M -2.1%
Base 5.6% USD 954.40M 1.3%
Bull 11.6% USD 1.33B 4.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 5.45BUSD 1.15BUSD 749.90MUSD 835.70M 21.7424.225.3138.17348.79
Year 15.6% USD 5.75BUSD 1.22BUSD 791.82MUSD 852.51M 22.9524.715.6055.52358.35
Year 24.3% USD 6.00BUSD 1.27BUSD 825.70MUSD 857.79M 23.9324.865.8473.61363.32
Year 32.9% USD 6.17BUSD 1.31BUSD 849.92MUSD 850.85M 24.6424.666.0292.23363.32
Year 42.9% USD 6.35BUSD 1.34BUSD 874.56MUSD 842.49M 25.3524.426.19111.39362.88
Year 52.9% USD 6.54BUSD 1.38BUSD 899.63MUSD 832.66M 26.0824.146.37131.10361.99
Year 62.8% USD 6.72BUSD 1.42BUSD 925.12MUSD 856.25M 26.8224.826.55151.37372.25
Year 72.8% USD 6.91BUSD 1.46BUSD 951.03MUSD 880.23M 27.5725.516.73172.20382.67
Year 82.8% USD 7.10BUSD 1.50BUSD 977.34MUSD 904.58M 28.3326.226.92193.61393.26
Year 92.7% USD 7.29BUSD 1.54BUSD 1.00BUSD 929.30M 29.1026.947.11215.61404.01
Year 102.7% USD 7.49BUSD 1.58BUSD 1.03BUSD 954.40M 29.8927.667.30238.20414.92

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.