Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Loomis AB (LOOMIS.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 509.50. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 7.2% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.4%, net 5.2%, free cash flow 10.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Starting growth was capped from 7.2% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 534.10Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range SEK 363.58 to SEK 837.53
5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

6.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 43.42BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 2.26BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 4.57BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 19.98Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 735.78Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 509.50
13.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

SEK 0 SEK 1.59B SEK 3.18B SEK 4.78B SEK 6.37B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.2% SEK 3.23B 0.1%
Base 8.2% SEK 4.57B 3.6%
Bull 14.2% SEK 6.37B 7.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– SEK 30.43BSEK 6.21BSEK 1.58BSEK 3.20B 23.2147.0014.00n/a509.50
Year 18.2% SEK 32.93BSEK 6.72BSEK 1.71BSEK 3.47B 25.1250.8615.15n/a552.66
Year 25.6% SEK 34.77BSEK 7.10BSEK 1.81BSEK 3.66B 26.5253.7016.00n/a584.95
Year 32.9% SEK 35.78BSEK 7.30BSEK 1.86BSEK 3.77B 27.3055.2716.47n/a603.56
Year 42.9% SEK 36.82BSEK 7.52BSEK 1.91BSEK 3.88B 28.0956.8816.94n/a622.55
Year 52.9% SEK 37.88BSEK 7.73BSEK 1.97BSEK 3.99B 28.9058.5117.43n/a641.93
Year 62.8% SEK 38.95BSEK 7.95BSEK 2.03BSEK 4.10B 29.7260.1617.92n/a660.11
Year 72.8% SEK 40.04BSEK 8.17BSEK 2.08BSEK 4.22B 30.5561.8518.42n/a678.60
Year 82.8% SEK 41.15BSEK 8.40BSEK 2.14BSEK 4.33B 31.3963.5618.93n/a697.37
Year 92.7% SEK 42.27BSEK 8.63BSEK 2.20BSEK 4.45B 32.2565.3019.45n/a716.43
Year 102.7% SEK 43.42BSEK 8.86BSEK 2.26BSEK 4.57B 33.1267.0619.98n/a735.78

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.