Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Lancashire Holdings Limited (LRE.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 21:20.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 6.89. Growth begins at 9.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 0.7%, net 21.4%, free cash flow 22.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-1.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 12.65Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range GBP 9.36 to GBP 18.56
84%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

6.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 1.68BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 297.56MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 379.95MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.28Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 10.23Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 6.89
22.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

-GBP 11.57M GBP 95.07M GBP 201.70M GBP 308.34M GBP 414.98M FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -7.8% GBP 210.37M -1.4%
Base -1.8% GBP 297.56M 2.1%
Bull 4.2% GBP 414.98M 5.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– GBP 1.13BGBP 8.18MGBP 242.29MGBP 254.86M 0.971.020.234.416.89
Year 1-1.8% GBP 1.11BGBP 8.03MGBP 229.64MGBP 250.37M 0.911.000.215.116.80
Year 23.2% GBP 1.15BGBP 8.29MGBP 228.40MGBP 258.46M 0.911.030.215.817.04
Year 37.5% GBP 1.23BGBP 8.92MGBP 236.20MGBP 277.83M 0.941.110.226.537.56
Year 46.8% GBP 1.32BGBP 9.52MGBP 242.25MGBP 296.63M 0.971.180.227.278.04
Year 56.0% GBP 1.39BGBP 10.09MGBP 246.34MGBP 314.55M 0.981.250.238.038.47
Year 65.3% GBP 1.47BGBP 10.63MGBP 259.42MGBP 331.25M 1.031.320.248.828.92
Year 74.6% GBP 1.54BGBP 11.12MGBP 271.31MGBP 346.43M 1.081.380.259.659.33
Year 83.9% GBP 1.60BGBP 11.55MGBP 281.77MGBP 359.79M 1.121.430.2610.519.69
Year 93.1% GBP 1.65BGBP 11.91MGBP 290.58MGBP 371.04M 1.161.480.2711.409.99
Year 102.4% GBP 1.68BGBP 12.19MGBP 297.56MGBP 379.95M 1.191.510.2812.3110.23

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.