Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Lerøy Seafood Group ASA (LSG.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 15:49.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 42.30. Growth begins at 8.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.9%, net 2.1%, free cash flow 8.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (9.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 37.65Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range NOK 28.81 to NOK 53.85
-11%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

7.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 56.94BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 1.21BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 3.79BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 2.02Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 65.84Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 42.30
15.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

NOK 0.00 NOK 0.70 NOK 1.40 NOK 2.10 NOK 2.80 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.2% NOK 1.44 -5.3%
Base 9.2% NOK 2.02 -2.1%
Bull 15.2% NOK 2.80 1.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– NOK 33.56BNOK 3.67BNOK 710.59MNOK 2.84B 1.194.762.5029.1442.30
Year 19.2% NOK 36.64BNOK 4.00BNOK 775.75MNOK 2.97B 1.304.981.3029.1445.42
Year 28.3% NOK 39.69BNOK 4.34BNOK 840.34MNOK 3.07B 1.415.161.4129.1448.37
Year 36.8% NOK 42.41BNOK 4.63BNOK 897.90MNOK 3.13B 1.515.251.5129.1450.80
Year 46.2% NOK 45.05BNOK 4.92BNOK 953.69MNOK 3.16B 1.605.311.6029.1453.02
Year 55.6% NOK 47.56BNOK 5.20BNOK 1.01BNOK 3.17B 1.695.321.6929.1454.99
Year 64.9% NOK 49.91BNOK 5.45BNOK 1.06BNOK 3.32B 1.775.581.7729.1457.71
Year 74.3% NOK 52.06BNOK 5.69BNOK 1.10BNOK 3.47B 1.855.821.8529.1460.20
Year 83.7% NOK 53.97BNOK 5.90BNOK 1.14BNOK 3.59B 1.926.041.9229.1462.41
Year 93.0% NOK 55.61BNOK 6.08BNOK 1.18BNOK 3.70B 1.986.221.9829.1464.30
Year 102.4% NOK 56.94BNOK 6.22BNOK 1.21BNOK 3.79B 2.026.372.0229.1465.84

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.