Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Jul 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:29.

Starts from TTM through 31 Jul 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 111.77. Growth begins at 5.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 23.1%, net 12.8%, free cash flow 12.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-1.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 167.63Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 124.61 to USD 241.91
50%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

6.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 15.10BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.93BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.84BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 209.21Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 111.77
14.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 645.23M USD 1.29B USD 1.94B USD 2.58B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 31 Jul 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -7.2% USD 1.30B -0.4%
Base -1.2% USD 1.84B 3.1%
Bull 4.8% USD 2.58B 6.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Jul 2026– USD 11.09BUSD 2.56BUSD 1.42BUSD 1.35B 12.5611.99n/an/a111.77
Year 1-1.2% USD 10.96BUSD 2.53BUSD 1.40BUSD 1.34B 12.4111.85n/an/a118.70
Year 21.8% USD 11.16BUSD 2.57BUSD 1.43BUSD 1.36B 12.6312.06n/an/a129.27
Year 34.6% USD 11.67BUSD 2.69BUSD 1.49BUSD 1.43B 13.2112.62n/an/a144.06
Year 44.4% USD 12.19BUSD 2.81BUSD 1.56BUSD 1.49B 13.7913.18n/an/a159.60
Year 54.2% USD 12.70BUSD 2.93BUSD 1.62BUSD 1.55B 14.3713.73n/an/a175.87
Year 64.0% USD 13.20BUSD 3.05BUSD 1.69BUSD 1.61B 14.9414.27n/an/a182.84
Year 73.8% USD 13.70BUSD 3.16BUSD 1.75BUSD 1.67B 15.5014.81n/an/a189.70
Year 83.5% USD 14.18BUSD 3.27BUSD 1.81BUSD 1.73B 16.0515.33n/an/a196.40
Year 93.3% USD 14.65BUSD 3.38BUSD 1.87BUSD 1.79B 16.5815.84n/an/a202.92
Year 103.1% USD 15.10BUSD 3.49BUSD 1.93BUSD 1.84B 17.1016.33n/an/a209.21

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.