Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Mandatum Oyj (MANTA.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:23.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 5.99. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 9.1%, net 7.1%, free cash flow 23.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
EUR 2.83Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 2.46 to EUR 3.47
-53%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

0.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 2.25BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 160.61MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 408.37MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.32Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 3.62Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 5.99
13.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.52 EUR 1.04 EUR 1.56 EUR 2.09 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.0% EUR 2.09 0.0%
Base 2.0% EUR 2.09 0.0%
Bull 8.0% EUR 2.09 0.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– EUR 1.81BEUR 164.50MEUR 129.20MEUR 422.30M 0.260.840.662.095.99
Year 12.0% EUR 1.85BEUR 167.79MEUR 131.78MEUR 411.61M 0.260.820.262.095.52
Year 22.0% EUR 1.88BEUR 171.22MEUR 134.48MEUR 400.50M 0.270.800.272.095.04
Year 32.1% EUR 1.92BEUR 174.80MEUR 137.29MEUR 388.94M 0.270.770.272.094.57
Year 42.1% EUR 1.96BEUR 178.53MEUR 140.22MEUR 376.88M 0.280.750.282.094.09
Year 52.2% EUR 2.01BEUR 182.41MEUR 143.27MEUR 364.29M 0.280.720.282.093.62
Year 62.2% EUR 2.05BEUR 186.47MEUR 146.45MEUR 372.38M 0.290.740.292.093.62
Year 72.3% EUR 2.10BEUR 190.69MEUR 149.77MEUR 380.82M 0.300.760.302.093.62
Year 82.3% EUR 2.15BEUR 195.10MEUR 153.23MEUR 389.62M 0.300.770.302.093.62
Year 92.4% EUR 2.20BEUR 199.70MEUR 156.84MEUR 398.80M 0.310.790.312.093.62
Year 102.4% EUR 2.25BEUR 204.49MEUR 160.61MEUR 408.37M 0.320.810.322.093.62

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.