Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:13.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 42.24. Growth begins at 2.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.7%, net 4.2%, free cash flow 3.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.4 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 50.91Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 40.92 to EUR 66.91
21%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

14.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 167.54BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 11.16BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 8.88BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 8.92Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 92.17Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 42.24
22.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 3.04 EUR 6.07 EUR 9.11 EUR 12.15 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.6% EUR 6.48 4.2%
Base 2.8% EUR 8.92 7.6%
Bull 8.2% EUR 12.15 10.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 128.05BEUR 13.75BEUR 5.38BEUR 4.83B 5.625.044.3097.4542.24
Year 12.8% EUR 131.64BEUR 15.05BEUR 6.17BEUR 5.36B 6.455.604.9498.9649.01
Year 22.5% EUR 134.98BEUR 16.37BEUR 7.00BEUR 5.91B 7.316.185.60100.6856.10
Year 32.4% EUR 138.18BEUR 17.72BEUR 7.84BEUR 6.48B 8.196.776.27102.5963.52
Year 42.5% EUR 141.61BEUR 19.14BEUR 8.73BEUR 7.07B 9.127.396.99104.7371.44
Year 52.6% EUR 145.27BEUR 20.64BEUR 9.68BEUR 7.70B 10.118.047.74107.1079.92
Year 62.7% EUR 149.17BEUR 21.19BEUR 9.94BEUR 7.91B 10.388.267.95109.5382.07
Year 72.8% EUR 153.33BEUR 21.79BEUR 10.21BEUR 8.13B 10.678.498.17112.0384.36
Year 82.9% EUR 157.77BEUR 22.42BEUR 10.51BEUR 8.36B 10.988.748.40114.6086.80
Year 93.0% EUR 162.50BEUR 23.09BEUR 10.82BEUR 8.61B 11.319.008.66117.2589.40
Year 103.1% EUR 167.54BEUR 23.80BEUR 11.16BEUR 8.88B 11.669.288.92119.9892.17

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.