Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Meta Platforms (META)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 615.09. Growth begins at 16.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 44.2%, net 31.1%, free cash flow 11.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (21.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 670.71Model fair value (Peer EV/Sales (growth peers)); range USD 500.15 to USD 841.26
9%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Free-cash-flow DCF value.

10.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 641.98BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 199.95BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 76.13BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 5.57Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 1,671.31Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 615.09
4.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 25.88B USD 51.76B USD 77.65B USD 103.53B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 15.6% USD 55.33B 6.8%
Base 21.6% USD 76.13B 10.3%
Bull 27.6% USD 103.53B 13.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 241.61BUSD 106.73BUSD 75.25BUSD 28.65B 29.2511.132.10105.86615.09
Year 121.6% USD 293.84BUSD 129.81BUSD 91.52BUSD 34.84B 35.5713.542.55138.88751.45
Year 218.1% USD 347.13BUSD 153.35BUSD 108.12BUSD 41.16B 42.0216.003.01177.89891.73
Year 313.2% USD 392.89BUSD 173.56BUSD 122.37BUSD 46.59B 47.5618.113.41222.031,013.80
Year 411.7% USD 438.91BUSD 193.89BUSD 136.70BUSD 52.05B 53.1320.233.81271.351,137.60
Year 510.2% USD 483.88BUSD 213.75BUSD 150.70BUSD 57.38B 58.5722.304.20325.721,259.72
Year 68.8% USD 526.34BUSD 232.51BUSD 163.93BUSD 62.41B 63.7124.264.57384.861,370.26
Year 77.3% USD 564.80BUSD 249.50BUSD 175.91BUSD 66.97B 68.3726.034.90448.321,470.38
Year 85.8% USD 597.77BUSD 264.06BUSD 186.18BUSD 70.88B 72.3627.555.19515.491,556.22
Year 94.4% USD 623.89BUSD 275.60BUSD 194.31BUSD 73.98B 75.5228.755.42585.591,624.21
Year 102.9% USD 641.98BUSD 283.59BUSD 199.95BUSD 76.13B 77.7129.595.57657.731,671.31

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.