Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

McCormick & Company (MKC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Aug 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:11.

Starts from TTM through 31 Aug 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 50.06. Growth begins at 3.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 17.3%, net 19.4%, free cash flow 12.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.1 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 39.17Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 24.84 to USD 65.81
-22%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

2.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 10.11BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.55BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.22BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.96Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 43.50Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 50.06
9.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 408.57M USD 817.14M USD 1.23B USD 1.63B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 31 Aug 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.2% USD 897.43M -0.3%
Base 2.9% USD 1.22B 2.8%
Bull 8.0% USD 1.63B 5.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Aug 2026– USD 7.69BUSD 1.33BUSD 1.49BUSD 925.90M 5.533.441.8826.0050.06
Year 12.9% USD 7.91BUSD 1.37BUSD 1.47BUSD 952.47M 5.453.541.8629.5947.72
Year 23.0% USD 8.14BUSD 1.41BUSD 1.45BUSD 981.21M 5.373.641.8333.1345.42
Year 33.1% USD 8.39BUSD 1.45BUSD 1.42BUSD 1.01B 5.283.751.8036.6143.10
Year 43.0% USD 8.64BUSD 1.50BUSD 1.39BUSD 1.04B 5.183.871.7640.0240.72
Year 52.9% USD 8.89BUSD 1.54BUSD 1.36BUSD 1.07B 5.063.981.7243.3638.28
Year 62.8% USD 9.14BUSD 1.58BUSD 1.40BUSD 1.10B 5.204.091.7746.7839.35
Year 72.7% USD 9.39BUSD 1.63BUSD 1.44BUSD 1.13B 5.344.201.8250.3040.40
Year 82.6% USD 9.63BUSD 1.67BUSD 1.47BUSD 1.16B 5.474.311.8653.9141.45
Year 92.5% USD 9.87BUSD 1.71BUSD 1.51BUSD 1.19B 5.614.411.9157.6142.48
Year 102.4% USD 10.11BUSD 1.75BUSD 1.55BUSD 1.22B 5.754.521.9661.4043.50

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.