Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Mosaic Company (The) (MOS)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 21.96. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.8%, net 4.5%, free cash flow -4.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is negative today, so the projection keeps it negative. It does not model a turnaround.
Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 16.48Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range USD 12.26 to USD 24.06
-25%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly; annual data only; free cash flow is negative, so the earnings may not be turning into cash; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

12.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 16.03BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.33BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 696.79MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.17Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 50.82Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 21.96
9.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

USD 0 USD 895.70M USD 1.79B USD 2.69B USD 3.58B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.0% USD 941.31M 5.7%
Base 6.0% USD 1.33B 9.5%
Bull 12.0% USD 1.87B 13.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 12.05BUSD 2.50BUSD 540.70M-USD 534.60M 1.70-1.680.88n/a21.96
Year 16.0% USD 12.78BUSD 2.65BUSD 671.40M-USD 342.39M 2.11-1.071.09n/a26.93
Year 24.0% USD 13.30BUSD 2.76BUSD 800.65M-USD 122.72M 2.51-0.381.30n/a31.71
Year 32.1% USD 13.58BUSD 2.82BUSD 921.97MUSD 113.18M 2.890.351.50n/a36.04
Year 42.2% USD 13.88BUSD 2.88BUSD 1.05BUSD 359.43M 3.291.131.71n/a40.47
Year 52.3% USD 14.19BUSD 2.95BUSD 1.18BUSD 616.86M 3.701.931.92n/a44.99
Year 62.3% USD 14.52BUSD 3.01BUSD 1.21BUSD 631.25M 3.791.981.97n/a46.04
Year 72.4% USD 14.87BUSD 3.09BUSD 1.24BUSD 646.40M 3.882.032.02n/a47.15
Year 82.5% USD 15.24BUSD 3.16BUSD 1.27BUSD 662.35M 3.982.082.06n/a48.31
Year 92.5% USD 15.63BUSD 3.24BUSD 1.30BUSD 679.13M 4.082.132.12n/a49.54
Year 102.6% USD 16.03BUSD 3.33BUSD 1.33BUSD 696.79M 4.192.182.17n/a50.82

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.