Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Motorola Solutions (MSI)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:06.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 517.01. Growth begins at 8.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 28.5%, net 16.6%, free cash flow 20.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 503.13Model fair value (EV/Sales (Rule of 40)); range USD 362.79 to USD 643.47
-3%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Free-cash-flow DCF value.

6.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 22.65BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 3.75BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 4.55BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 8.42Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 922.73Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 517.01
5.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.28B USD 2.56B USD 3.84B USD 5.12B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 7.4% USD 4.04B 4.8%
Base 8.9% USD 4.55B 6.0%
Bull 10.4% USD 5.12B 7.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 12.60BUSD 3.60BUSD 2.09BUSD 2.53B 12.4615.144.6818.33517.01
Year 18.9% USD 13.73BUSD 3.92BUSD 2.27BUSD 2.76B 13.5716.495.1026.80562.32
Year 28.5% USD 14.90BUSD 4.25BUSD 2.47BUSD 2.99B 14.7317.895.5436.00609.41
Year 37.5% USD 16.02BUSD 4.57BUSD 2.65BUSD 3.22B 15.8419.245.9545.88654.35
Year 46.9% USD 17.12BUSD 4.89BUSD 2.83BUSD 3.44B 16.9320.576.3656.45698.63
Year 56.3% USD 18.20BUSD 5.19BUSD 3.01BUSD 3.66B 18.0021.866.7667.68741.64
Year 65.7% USD 19.24BUSD 5.49BUSD 3.18BUSD 3.87B 19.0223.107.1579.55783.84
Year 75.1% USD 20.21BUSD 5.77BUSD 3.35BUSD 4.06B 19.9924.287.5192.03823.66
Year 84.5% USD 21.12BUSD 6.03BUSD 3.50BUSD 4.25B 20.8825.367.85105.06860.48
Year 93.9% USD 21.93BUSD 6.26BUSD 3.63BUSD 4.41B 21.6926.348.15118.59893.69
Year 103.3% USD 22.65BUSD 6.46BUSD 3.75BUSD 4.55B 22.3927.208.42132.57922.73

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.