Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Micron Technology (MU)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Aug 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 09:47.

Starts from TTM through 31 Aug 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 656.39. Growth begins at 20.1% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 81.7%, net 63.8%, free cash flow 40.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (16.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 621.53Model fair value (Steady-state FCFF (cycle-adjusted)); range USD 502.18 to USD 817.27
-5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

2.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 380.62BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 106.64BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 49.92BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.67Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 812.84Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 656.39
6.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 6.12B USD 12.36B USD 30.84B USD 49.32B USD 67.80B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 31 Aug 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 10.0% USD 36.33B -3.9%
Base 16.0% USD 49.92B -0.8%
Bull 22.0% USD 67.80B 2.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Aug 2026– USD 133.19BUSD 108.84BUSD 84.97BUSD 53.91B 74.0847.000.53120.64656.39
Year 116.0% USD 154.54BUSD 118.20BUSD 87.53BUSD 54.09B 76.3147.160.55196.41674.38
Year 217.1% USD 181.04BUSD 128.98BUSD 89.58BUSD 53.46B 78.1046.610.56273.95688.37
Year 316.4% USD 210.70BUSD 139.08BUSD 89.19BUSD 50.69B 77.7644.190.56351.15683.48
Year 414.5% USD 241.27BUSD 146.62BUSD 84.86BUSD 44.84B 73.9939.100.53424.60648.60
Year 512.6% USD 271.76BUSD 150.91BUSD 76.14BUSD 35.64B 66.3831.070.48490.50580.34
Year 610.8% USD 300.99BUSD 167.14BUSD 84.33BUSD 39.47B 73.5234.420.53563.50642.77
Year 78.9% USD 327.72BUSD 181.98BUSD 91.81BUSD 42.98B 80.0537.470.57642.97699.85
Year 87.0% USD 350.67BUSD 194.73BUSD 98.24BUSD 45.99B 85.6540.100.61728.00748.86
Year 95.1% USD 368.64BUSD 204.71BUSD 103.28BUSD 48.35B 90.0442.150.65817.40787.25
Year 103.3% USD 380.62BUSD 211.36BUSD 106.64BUSD 49.92B 92.9743.520.67909.70812.84

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.