Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG (MUV2.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:45.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 575.40. Growth begins at 3.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.5%, net 8.8%, free cash flow 1.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 5.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 569.50Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 473.55 to EUR 739.25
-1%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

9.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 90.50BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 6.42BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.44BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 21.15Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 1,160.11Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 575.40
1.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 146.06 EUR 292.13 EUR 438.19 EUR 584.26 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.9% EUR 469.02 6.2%
Base 2.6% EUR 520.66 7.3%
Bull 8.1% EUR 584.26 8.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 69.30BEUR 9.36BEUR 6.12BEUR 1.10B 47.158.5220.14256.26575.40
Year 12.6% EUR 71.11BEUR 9.23BEUR 6.03BEUR 1.13B 46.498.7419.86282.89634.23
Year 22.8% EUR 73.14BEUR 9.11BEUR 5.95BEUR 1.17B 45.868.9919.59309.16692.06
Year 33.0% EUR 75.33BEUR 8.99BEUR 5.87BEUR 1.20B 45.239.2619.32335.07748.91
Year 42.9% EUR 77.52BEUR 8.85BEUR 5.77BEUR 1.24B 44.489.5319.00360.56804.62
Year 52.8% EUR 79.72BEUR 8.69BEUR 5.66BEUR 1.27B 43.619.8018.63385.54859.04
Year 62.7% EUR 81.90BEUR 8.93BEUR 5.81BEUR 1.31B 44.8110.0719.14411.21916.24
Year 72.7% EUR 84.08BEUR 9.16BEUR 5.97BEUR 1.34B 46.0010.3319.65437.56974.95
Year 82.6% EUR 86.24BEUR 9.40BEUR 6.12BEUR 1.38B 47.1810.6020.15464.591,035.18
Year 92.5% EUR 88.38BEUR 9.63BEUR 6.27BEUR 1.41B 48.3510.8620.65492.301,096.90
Year 102.4% EUR 90.50BEUR 9.86BEUR 6.42BEUR 1.44B 49.5111.1221.15520.661,160.11

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.