Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA (NAS.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:18.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 13.03. Growth begins at 12.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 19.1%, net 2.3%, free cash flow 14.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 12.66Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range NOK 9.84 to NOK 17.61
-3%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

19.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 74.13BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 3.65BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 9.43BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 3.47Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 52.23Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 13.03
68.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

NOK 0.00 NOK 1.20 NOK 2.39 NOK 3.59 NOK 4.79 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.9% NOK 2.49 10.7%
Base 7.9% NOK 3.47 14.5%
Bull 13.9% NOK 4.79 18.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– NOK 38.57BNOK 7.36BNOK 905.00MNOK 5.50B 0.865.220.908.7513.03
Year 17.9% NOK 41.62BNOK 8.15BNOK 1.19BNOK 5.80B 1.135.511.138.7517.13
Year 29.4% NOK 45.54BNOK 9.15BNOK 1.54BNOK 6.21B 1.465.901.468.7522.10
Year 39.9% NOK 50.06BNOK 10.31BNOK 1.95BNOK 6.67B 1.856.341.858.7527.96
Year 48.9% NOK 54.50BNOK 11.50BNOK 2.40BNOK 7.10B 2.286.742.288.7534.43
Year 57.9% NOK 58.78BNOK 12.70BNOK 2.90BNOK 7.48B 2.757.102.758.7541.42
Year 66.8% NOK 62.79BNOK 13.57BNOK 3.09BNOK 7.99B 2.947.592.948.7544.24
Year 75.8% NOK 66.42BNOK 14.35BNOK 3.27BNOK 8.45B 3.118.033.118.7546.80
Year 84.8% NOK 69.58BNOK 15.03BNOK 3.43BNOK 8.85B 3.268.413.268.7549.03
Year 93.7% NOK 72.18BNOK 15.60BNOK 3.56BNOK 9.18B 3.388.723.388.7550.86
Year 102.7% NOK 74.13BNOK 16.02BNOK 3.65BNOK 9.43B 3.478.963.478.7552.23

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.