Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

NCC AB (NCC-B.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 187.40. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 3.8%, net 0.3%, free cash flow 1.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-4.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 140.25Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range SEK 111.10 to SEK 188.83
-25%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; annual data only.

0.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 63.58BRevenue in year 10 (base)
SEK 162.03MNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 1.21BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 1.66Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
SEK 186.93Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 187.40
6.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

SEK 0.00 SEK 2.75 SEK 5.50 SEK 8.25 SEK 11.00 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -10.6% SEK 1.16 -20.2%
Base -4.6% SEK 1.66 -17.2%
Bull 1.4% SEK 2.34 -14.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– SEK 55.72BSEK 2.09BSEK 142.00MSEK 1.06B 1.4510.8811.00n/a187.40
Year 1-4.6% SEK 53.15BSEK 2.00BSEK 135.45MSEK 1.01B 1.3910.381.39n/a174.26
Year 2-1.3% SEK 52.48BSEK 1.97BSEK 133.74MSEK 1.00B 1.3710.251.37n/a167.62
Year 32.2% SEK 53.61BSEK 2.01BSEK 136.62MSEK 1.02B 1.4010.471.40n/a166.69
Year 42.2% SEK 54.80BSEK 2.06BSEK 139.67MSEK 1.05B 1.4310.701.43n/a165.78
Year 52.3% SEK 56.07BSEK 2.11BSEK 142.90MSEK 1.07B 1.4610.951.46n/a164.86
Year 62.4% SEK 57.41BSEK 2.16BSEK 146.31MSEK 1.10B 1.5011.211.50n/a168.80
Year 72.5% SEK 58.83BSEK 2.21BSEK 149.92MSEK 1.12B 1.5311.491.53n/a172.97
Year 82.5% SEK 60.32BSEK 2.27BSEK 153.74MSEK 1.15B 1.5711.781.57n/a177.37
Year 92.6% SEK 61.90BSEK 2.33BSEK 157.77MSEK 1.18B 1.6112.091.61n/a182.02
Year 102.7% SEK 63.58BSEK 2.39BSEK 162.03MSEK 1.21B 1.6612.411.66n/a186.93

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.