Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:22.
Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 17.76. Growth begins at 10.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 26.4%, net 8.2%, free cash flow -5.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; free cash flow is negative, so the earnings may not be turning into cash; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.1% | USD 1.08B | 2.6% |
| Base | 4.9% | USD 1.51B | 6.1% |
| Bull | 10.9% | USD 2.09B | 9.6% |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM through 30 Sep 2026 | – | USD 10.16B | USD 2.68B | USD 832.94M | -USD 530.68M | 1.81 | -1.15 | n/a | n/a | 17.76 |
| Year 1 | 4.9% | USD 10.66B | USD 2.63B | USD 874.09M | -USD 556.89M | 1.90 | -1.21 | n/a | n/a | 18.81 |
| Year 2 | 7.5% | USD 11.46B | USD 2.63B | USD 939.60M | -USD 598.64M | 2.04 | -1.30 | n/a | n/a | 20.41 |
| Year 3 | 9.2% | USD 12.52B | USD 2.65B | USD 1.03B | -USD 653.60M | 2.23 | -1.42 | n/a | n/a | 22.48 |
| Year 4 | 8.3% | USD 13.56B | USD 2.63B | USD 1.11B | -USD 707.94M | 2.41 | -1.54 | n/a | n/a | 24.57 |
| Year 5 | 7.4% | USD 14.57B | USD 2.58B | USD 1.19B | -USD 760.64M | 2.59 | -1.65 | n/a | n/a | 26.64 |
| Year 6 | 6.6% | USD 15.52B | USD 2.75B | USD 1.27B | -USD 810.66M | 2.76 | -1.76 | n/a | n/a | 28.39 |
| Year 7 | 5.7% | USD 16.41B | USD 2.90B | USD 1.34B | -USD 856.92M | 2.92 | -1.86 | n/a | n/a | 30.01 |
| Year 8 | 4.8% | USD 17.20B | USD 3.04B | USD 1.41B | -USD 898.38M | 3.06 | -1.95 | n/a | n/a | 31.46 |
| Year 9 | 4.0% | USD 17.89B | USD 3.17B | USD 1.47B | -USD 934.03M | 3.18 | -2.03 | n/a | n/a | 32.71 |
| Year 10 | 3.1% | USD 18.44B | USD 3.26B | USD 1.51B | -USD 962.99M | 3.28 | -2.09 | n/a | n/a | 33.73 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.