Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Nordea Bank Abp (NDA-FI.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:42.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 16.43. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 6.1% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 34.7%, net 24.7%, free cash flow 64.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 6.1% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.2%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 16.13Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 13.63 to EUR 20.55
-2%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data.

8.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 25.88BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 6.38BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 12.71BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.28Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 25.68Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 16.43
22.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 4.04 EUR 8.07 EUR 12.11 EUR 16.15 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.2% EUR 13.54 3.9%
Base 6.2% EUR 14.69 4.7%
Bull 12.2% EUR 16.15 5.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 18.93BEUR 6.58BEUR 4.67BEUR 12.27B 1.383.640.949.2716.43
Year 16.2% EUR 20.10BEUR 6.98BEUR 4.96BEUR 12.40B 1.473.671.009.7417.22
Year 24.6% EUR 21.02BEUR 7.30BEUR 5.19BEUR 12.30B 1.543.651.0410.2418.04
Year 32.9% EUR 21.62BEUR 7.51BEUR 5.33BEUR 11.98B 1.583.551.0710.7418.88
Year 42.8% EUR 22.23BEUR 7.72BEUR 5.48BEUR 11.61B 1.633.441.1011.2719.74
Year 52.7% EUR 22.83BEUR 7.93BEUR 5.63BEUR 11.21B 1.673.321.1311.8020.62
Year 62.7% EUR 23.44BEUR 8.14BEUR 5.78BEUR 11.51B 1.713.411.1612.3521.59
Year 72.6% EUR 24.05BEUR 8.36BEUR 5.93BEUR 11.81B 1.763.501.1912.9222.57
Year 82.5% EUR 24.66BEUR 8.57BEUR 6.08BEUR 12.11B 1.803.591.2213.4923.58
Year 92.5% EUR 25.27BEUR 8.78BEUR 6.23BEUR 12.41B 1.853.681.2514.0924.62
Year 102.4% EUR 25.88BEUR 8.99BEUR 6.38BEUR 12.71B 1.893.771.2814.6925.68

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.