Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Nike, Inc. (NKE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Aug 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:10.

Starts from TTM through 31 Aug 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 39.56. Growth begins at 2.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 9.9%, net 6.7%, free cash flow 4.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 16.50Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 12.01 to USD 24.25
-58%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

1.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 58.62BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 3.95BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 2.69BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.09Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 28.44Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 39.56
4.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.65B USD 3.31B USD 4.96B USD 6.62B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 31 Aug 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -5.0% USD 1.89B -1.1%
Base 1.0% USD 2.69B 2.5%
Bull 7.0% USD 3.77B 6.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Aug 2026– USD 45.89BUSD 4.56BUSD 3.09BUSD 2.10B 2.081.421.6310.2539.56
Year 11.0% USD 46.34BUSD 4.61BUSD 3.12BUSD 2.13B 2.101.431.6510.7136.45
Year 21.7% USD 47.11BUSD 4.69BUSD 3.18BUSD 2.16B 2.141.461.6811.1733.51
Year 32.4% USD 48.26BUSD 4.80BUSD 3.25BUSD 2.21B 2.191.491.7211.6430.69
Year 42.5% USD 49.48BUSD 4.92BUSD 3.34BUSD 2.27B 2.251.531.7612.1327.74
Year 52.6% USD 50.78BUSD 5.05BUSD 3.42BUSD 2.33B 2.311.571.8112.6224.64
Year 62.7% USD 52.17BUSD 5.19BUSD 3.52BUSD 2.39B 2.371.611.8613.1325.31
Year 72.8% USD 53.63BUSD 5.33BUSD 3.61BUSD 2.46B 2.441.661.9113.6626.02
Year 82.9% USD 55.20BUSD 5.49BUSD 3.72BUSD 2.53B 2.511.711.9714.2026.78
Year 93.0% USD 56.85BUSD 5.65BUSD 3.83BUSD 2.61B 2.581.762.0314.7627.58
Year 103.1% USD 58.62BUSD 5.83BUSD 3.95BUSD 2.69B 2.661.812.0915.3328.44

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.