Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Nokia Oyj (NOKIA.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 06:03.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 7.01. Growth begins at 4.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 14.3%, net 3.7%, free cash flow 0.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (8.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 6.37Model fair value (EV/EBITDA (12x)); range EUR 5.35 to EUR 7.40
-9%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Normalised free-cash-flow DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Normalised free-cash-flow DCF value.

5.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 32.17BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.21BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 9.37MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.21Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 10.70Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 7.01
0.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 505.25M EUR 1.01B EUR 1.52B EUR 2.02B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 2.3% EUR 6.66M 1.0%
Base 8.3% EUR 9.37M 4.6%
Bull 14.3% EUR 13.03M 8.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 20.59BEUR 2.94BEUR 772.00MEUR 6.00M 0.130.000.143.707.01
Year 18.3% EUR 22.30BEUR 3.19BEUR 836.15MEUR 6.50M 0.150.000.153.707.56
Year 26.5% EUR 23.75BEUR 3.40BEUR 890.39MEUR 6.92M 0.150.000.153.708.01
Year 34.5% EUR 24.81BEUR 3.55BEUR 930.34MEUR 7.23M 0.160.000.163.708.33
Year 44.3% EUR 25.88BEUR 3.70BEUR 970.44MEUR 7.54M 0.170.000.173.708.65
Year 54.1% EUR 26.95BEUR 3.85BEUR 1.01BEUR 7.85M 0.180.000.183.708.97
Year 64.0% EUR 28.02BEUR 4.01BEUR 1.05BEUR 8.16M 0.180.000.183.709.32
Year 73.8% EUR 29.08BEUR 4.16BEUR 1.09BEUR 8.47M 0.190.000.193.709.68
Year 83.6% EUR 30.13BEUR 4.31BEUR 1.13BEUR 8.78M 0.200.000.203.7010.02
Year 93.4% EUR 31.16BEUR 4.46BEUR 1.17BEUR 9.08M 0.200.000.203.7010.37
Year 103.3% EUR 32.17BEUR 4.60BEUR 1.21BEUR 9.37M 0.210.000.213.7010.70

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.