Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B.CO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:12.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in DKK and a share price of DKK 266.95. Growth begins at 7.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 52.9%, net 33.9%, free cash flow 13.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
DKK 155.08Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range DKK 112.08 to DKK 229.90
-42%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
DKK 507.63BRevenue in year 10 (base)
DKK 172.19BNet income in year 10 (base)
DKK 70.38BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
DKK 17.88Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
DKK 278.50Implied share price in year 10 (base), today DKK 266.95
6.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

DKK 0 DKK 24.51B DKK 49.01B DKK 73.52B DKK 98.02B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.7% DKK 49.83B 0.7%
Base 1.4% DKK 70.38B 4.3%
Bull 7.4% DKK 98.02B 7.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– DKK 333.65BDKK 176.65BDKK 113.18BDKK 46.26B 25.6410.4811.7549.33266.95
Year 11.4% DKK 338.15BDKK 179.03BDKK 114.70BDKK 46.88B 25.9810.6211.9163.40253.55
Year 24.2% DKK 352.22BDKK 186.48BDKK 119.48BDKK 48.83B 27.0611.0612.4178.06246.38
Year 36.5% DKK 374.98BDKK 198.53BDKK 127.20BDKK 51.99B 28.8111.7813.2193.66243.44
Year 46.0% DKK 397.31BDKK 210.35BDKK 134.77BDKK 55.08B 30.5312.4814.00110.18237.95
Year 55.4% DKK 418.94BDKK 221.80BDKK 142.11BDKK 58.08B 32.1913.1614.76127.61229.84
Year 64.9% DKK 439.62BDKK 232.75BDKK 149.12BDKK 60.95B 33.7813.8015.49145.90241.18
Year 74.4% DKK 459.08BDKK 243.05BDKK 155.72BDKK 63.64B 35.2714.4216.17165.00251.86
Year 83.9% DKK 477.06BDKK 252.57BDKK 161.82BDKK 66.14B 36.6514.9816.81184.85261.73
Year 93.4% DKK 493.33BDKK 261.18BDKK 167.34BDKK 68.39B 37.9015.4917.38205.37270.65
Year 102.9% DKK 507.63BDKK 268.76BDKK 172.19BDKK 70.38B 39.0015.9417.88226.49278.50

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.