Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Orkla ASA (ORK.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:04.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 103.30. Growth begins at 4.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.8%, net 9.6%, free cash flow 9.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 150.59Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range NOK 115.23 to NOK 215.42
46%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Free-cash-flow DCF value.

8.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 95.39BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 9.18BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 8.92BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 9.48Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 155.06Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 103.30
8.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

NOK 0.00 NOK 3.31 NOK 6.63 NOK 9.94 NOK 13.25 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.7% NOK 6.68 -4.0%
Base 2.3% NOK 9.48 -0.5%
Bull 8.3% NOK 13.25 2.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– NOK 70.82BNOK 11.90BNOK 6.82BNOK 6.62B 7.046.8410.0043.72103.30
Year 12.3% NOK 72.43BNOK 12.17BNOK 6.97BNOK 6.77B 7.206.997.2043.72108.06
Year 23.1% NOK 74.70BNOK 12.56BNOK 7.19BNOK 6.98B 7.427.217.4243.72113.95
Year 33.8% NOK 77.55BNOK 13.03BNOK 7.46BNOK 7.25B 7.717.497.7143.72120.88
Year 43.6% NOK 80.34BNOK 13.50BNOK 7.73BNOK 7.51B 7.987.767.9843.72127.92
Year 53.4% NOK 83.08BNOK 13.96BNOK 8.00BNOK 7.77B 8.268.028.2643.72135.05
Year 63.2% NOK 85.74BNOK 14.41BNOK 8.25BNOK 8.02B 8.528.288.5243.72139.38
Year 73.0% NOK 88.32BNOK 14.84BNOK 8.50BNOK 8.26B 8.788.538.7843.72143.56
Year 82.8% NOK 90.79BNOK 15.26BNOK 8.74BNOK 8.49B 9.028.769.0243.72147.59
Year 92.6% NOK 93.15BNOK 15.66BNOK 8.97BNOK 8.71B 9.268.999.2643.72151.42
Year 102.4% NOK 95.39BNOK 16.03BNOK 9.18BNOK 8.92B 9.489.219.4843.72155.06

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.