Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:48; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 05 Nov 2026 20:50.
Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 55.85. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA n/a, net 7.5%, free cash flow 19.0% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -11.9% | USD 3.86B | -0.6% |
| Base | -5.9% | USD 5.54B | 3.0% |
| Bull | 0.1% | USD 7.82B | 6.7% |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year 2025 | – | USD 21.59B | – | USD 1.61B | USD 4.11B | 1.61 | 4.10 | 0.96 | 36.03 | 55.85 |
| Year 1 | -5.9% | USD 20.31B | – | USD 1.52B | USD 4.03B | 1.52 | 4.03 | 0.90 | 36.64 | 51.48 |
| Year 2 | -1.9% | USD 19.92B | – | USD 1.49B | USD 4.12B | 1.49 | 4.12 | 0.89 | 37.25 | 49.45 |
| Year 3 | 2.1% | USD 20.34B | – | USD 1.52B | USD 4.38B | 1.52 | 4.37 | 0.90 | 37.86 | 49.43 |
| Year 4 | 2.2% | USD 20.78B | – | USD 1.55B | USD 4.64B | 1.55 | 4.64 | 0.92 | 38.49 | 49.42 |
| Year 5 | 2.2% | USD 21.25B | – | USD 1.59B | USD 4.92B | 1.59 | 4.92 | 0.94 | 39.13 | 49.41 |
| Year 6 | 2.3% | USD 21.73B | – | USD 1.62B | USD 5.03B | 1.62 | 5.03 | 0.97 | 39.78 | 50.54 |
| Year 7 | 2.3% | USD 22.24B | – | USD 1.66B | USD 5.15B | 1.66 | 5.15 | 0.99 | 40.46 | 51.71 |
| Year 8 | 2.4% | USD 22.77B | – | USD 1.70B | USD 5.28B | 1.70 | 5.27 | 1.01 | 41.14 | 52.95 |
| Year 9 | 2.4% | USD 23.32B | – | USD 1.74B | USD 5.40B | 1.74 | 5.40 | 1.04 | 41.85 | 54.24 |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | USD 23.91B | – | USD 1.78B | USD 5.54B | 1.78 | 5.54 | 1.06 | 42.57 | 55.60 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.